How to Expect the Unexpected The Science of Making Predictions (2023) [AudioBook]

How to Expect the Unexpected The Science of Making Predictions (2023) [AudioBook]

https://www.audible.ca/pd/How-to-Expect-the-Unexpected-Audiobook/B0C5YL1XYN

Publisher's Summary

A “vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide” (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right

How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage.

General
Complete name : AudioBooks\How to Expect the Unexpected The Science of Making Predictions (2023)\How to Expect the Unexpected The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art of Knowing When Not To.mp3
Format : MPEG Audio
File size : 322 MiB
Duration : 11 h 42 min
Overall bit rate : 64.0 kb/s
Album : How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art of Knowing When Not To
Track name : How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art of Knowing When Not To
Track name/Position : 1
Performer : Kit Yates
Composer : Kit Yates
Recorded date : 2023
Writing library : LAMEUUUÿ{¬`Ö»Ø!
Cover : Yes
Cover type : Cover (front)
Cover MIME : image/jpeg

Audio
Format : MPEG Audio
Format version : Version 1
Format profile : Layer 3
Format settings : Joint stereo / MS Stereo
Duration : 11 h 42 min
Bit rate mode : Constant
Bit rate : 64.0 kb/s
Channel(s) : 2 channels
Sampling rate : 44.1 kHz
Frame rate : 38.281 FPS (1152 SPF)
Compression mode : Lossy
Stream size : 322 MiB (100%)
Writing library : LAMEUUUÿ{¬`Ö»Ø!

Image
Format : JPEG
Width : 300 pixels
Height : 400 pixels
Color space : YUV
Chroma subsampling : 4:2:0
Bit depth : 8 bits
Compression mode : Lossy
Stream size : 17.8 KiB (0%)

From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for listeners to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by.

This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2023 Kit Yates (P)2023 Basic Books